Boosters Now PROMOTE Covid Deaths in Europe
Ba.5 turned out to be the “Boosted People Variant” after all
A couple of months ago I wrote an article about Ba.5 being a variant that disproportionally affects boosted people:
The article compared the experience of highly-boosted Portugal and almost-unboosted South Africa and showed that outcomes of the Ba.5 wave in both countries were very different, favoring the less-vaccinated South Africa. The article attracted great interest from many people and I even ended up on the amazing Del Bigtree’s HighWire show, which was an incredible experience for me.
Since then, the Ba.5 wave crested over in most European countries, so I decided to revisit this topic more systematically to see how my prediction panned out. I decided to look at European countries where booster data is available.
I downloaded the entire dataset from “Our World in Data”, which is 57 megabytes of CSV data, and saved it as an SQL database. This way, I can make many custom queries against it. I am no longer limited to reading tea leaves in visual graphs and can deal with larger data sets involving multiple countries.
The data looks like this:
Boosters and COVID Deaths
Promoters of Covid boosters say that “boosters reduce COVID deaths”. Let’s leave aside the objection that boosters may increase overall mortality, and look at only Covid-related deaths.
I specifically decided to look at European countries because I am hoping that Covid booster and death data collection in those countries is roughly on the same level. Limiting myself to European countries allows me to compare “apples with apples” as far as population, boosters and deaths are concerned. Note that this article looks at deaths only and does not look at Covid “cases” in any way.
The countries are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.
My database allows me to gather and analyze data to answer the following:
Given the beginning and ending dates (given a certain period of time), what is the relationship between booster rates at the beginning of the period, and COVID deaths per million during the period?
The periods that I selected (and I could select any other periods, this is just what I decided), are:
- Jan 1 – Mar 31 (three months)
- Mar 1-May 30 (three months)
- Jun 1 – Jul 23 (almost two months)
For each period, for every country, I collect:
- Booster rate per 100 people for the beginning of the period
- Cumulative Covid deaths per million for the beginning of the period
- Cumulative Covid deaths per million for the end of the period
- This allows me to calculate total Covid deaths per million for the period, by subtracting the two previous values
The data looks like this. You can verify it by looking at Our World in Data’s “boosters per 100” chart, and “deaths per million” chart.
There are three such tables, one for each of the three above periods (Jan-Mar, Mar-May, Jun-Jul). I analyzed each table with linear regression, to see the impact of boosters on deaths. The three periods show distinctly different outcomes:
January-March 2022
Analyzing the above table with linear regression shows that during this period, boosters were associated with a reduction in reported Covid deaths and this reduction was significant.
So, boosters were preventing Covid deaths during Jan-March of 2022. (again, we do NOT look at their effects on overall mortality, only on Covid mortality)
March-May 2022
The data for March-May 2022 is here:
The regression is here:
You can see that linear regression analysis shows no protection and the P value of 0.69 means that there is no significant effect from boosters during March-May of 2022. There is no more protective effect seen, but not yet any negative effect either.
Jun-July 2022 — The BAD NEWS
The data for June-July 2022 is here (again, you can verify it by looking at our world in data charts)
I also applied a linear regression to see what it means. Big surprise here!
Now, for June-July, we see that more boosters mean MORE deaths and that the association between booster rates and Covid deaths is highly statistically significant!
This is the Best “Apples-to-Apples” Comparison
Let’s summarize. We looked at the same set of countries in Europe during three different periods of time. During the first period, booster rates were associated with statistically significant reductions in Covid deaths. During the second period, booster rates had no effect on Covid death rates. And during the last, third period, booster rates CONTRIBUTED to greater deaths!
The fact that all three periods involved the same countries (except a couple who did not report booster rates during the first period), means that this outcome is NOT due to population-wide age or other demographic differences. The difference between outcomes in these periods is due to the passage of time, and changes in the interaction of boosted immune systems with the evolving virus.
Note that my data shows something much worse than “boosters stopping to work”. Instead of merely becoming useless, like in the second period, boosters became harmful and promoted deaths in the third period.
Immune Tolerance due to Boosters
Why is this happening? Boosters and vaccines worsening Covid outcomes is really a topic for another article to explore possible answers.
There are certainly MANY REASONS why boosters do not work anymore. Let me touch upon just one such reason. Remember that other reasons are also important!
Here’s an ABC news segment where a “Covid health expert” surprisingly says something sensible. The news segment is about the 4th dose but applies to the third dose just as well.
Jan Ashton describes the “immune phenomenon known as tolerance”. What “tolerance” means is that repeated antigen injections end up working like allergy shots, increasing tolerance to the antigen, which is in this case spike protein.
Tolerance towards allergens, like tree pollen, is a good thing. (I had allergy shots myself). However, tolerance toward a replicating virus that damages our cardiovascular system and immune system is a bad thing! Tolerance also turns affected people into walking Covid superspreaders.
Instead of seeing the viral antigen as a sign to start a battle against the virus, the immune system says “oh well, another spike protein injection” and ignores it. That allows the virus to multiply unchecked and cause immense damage by killing various cells and hurting our cardiovascular systems and more. The infected person feels less fever and less disturbance than they would feel from a robust immune reaction, so the illness feels “milder”, but this is actually a bad thing because the virus multiplies unopposed.
Our “independent Substack expert” Brian Mowrey wrote an excellent article explaining what “tolerance” means and how it works. He explains how immune tolerance works via IgG4 mechanism and why it is bad.
Tolerance takes time to take effect due to the slow production of IgG4, so it does not happen right after a booster dose injection. Once tolerance takes effect, the virus is no longer seen as an “enemy”, to the same extent as it should be seen.
Tolerance ultimately makes deaths “from Covid” look like deaths “with Covid”. If a spike-tolerant boosted person dies from a heart attack that happens due to overexpression of the virus, it may seem unrelated. But it is NOT unrelated.
Tolerance is a part of the reason why quadruple boosted Dr. Fauci had a 26-day Covid bout:
… and is also why boosted people remain contagious for much longer than unvaccinated people:
Again, there are other reasons why repeated mRNA injections undermine the immune system and our reactions to pathogens. I do not want to overload my article.
The main takeaway is that boosters now mean increased deaths. I expect this to get worse and worse over time, due to reinfections taking people down gradually, and the virus taking advantage of the useless booster antibodies. Significant increases in total mortality are likely to happen.
Good luck
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