Day 11 – Putin’s last warning before beginning of the 2nd phase of the operation
First, since Boris Rozhin did take the time to write up a summary for the day, I will begin by sharing with you a machine translation of his summary of the day:
1. Negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine will be held tomorrow on the territory of Belarus. Moscow has made it clear once again today that if Kiev does not accept the conditions (without any concessions), the consequences for Ukrainian statehood will be severe. The United States says that the second phase of the operation may begin on Monday, including operations to establish control over Odessa and Kiev, as well as the encirclement of the AFU group in the Donbas. In the statements of Zelensky’s gang, there are more and more hysterical notes and accusations against the West that he threw (there has never been such a thing).
2. Humanitarian corridors in Mariupol and Volnovakha are still being disrupted by the Nazis from Azov, despite all agreements. Is anyone surprised? I’m not. So far, it has been possible to free about 300 people from the hands of terrorists who were holed up in Mariupol. Several dozen more were able to escape from Volnovakha. Ukrainian terrorists do not want to get rid of their human shield in any way. Which condemns many people to death when the counter-terrorist operation begins in Mariupol itself and the active cleaning of Volnovakha continues.
3. Misunderstandings continue with Zelensky’s real whereabouts, and Ukrainian and American sources are dispersing the news about Zelensky’s impending evacuation to the West, and the search for spies and traitors is also continuing. Kivu was accused of “high treason” and put on the wanted list. They’ll catch him, probably kill him like Kireev. And there they will already think who he is a “traitor” or a “hero”. Zelensky himself said today that the West wants Ukrainians to be killed (woke up) and that “we are fighting for where the new border will be.” The old border will obviously no longer exist. The borders will change in any case – the question of course is interesting, where they will pass.
4. Anti-war rallies are taking place in the Russian Federation today, with the help of which Zelensky called for stopping the operation in Ukraine. Judging by the number of people gathered, even the arrest of Navalny (who is this, by the way?) and coronavirus restrictions (by the way, where is covid?) they worried citizens more. But let’s see, maybe by the evening the number will grow. In the meantime, everything is pretty pathetic, which was apparently facilitated by a fierce information sweep, which continued today.
5. The enforcement of the law on fakes on the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has begun today. The first lucky person got off with a fine of 60,000 rubles. I had the idea to write about the problems in the offensive operation (of course, they also exist), but I’ll wait for now – we need to see how the law works in practice. Well, or after the end of the operation there will be material when military censorship will not be so fierce.
With regard to the operation itself, it is worth noting that even in the West there are discrepancies regarding the plans of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, although the progress on the map gives some idea of what they are striving for. From a subjective point of view, priority No. 1 is the destruction of the AFU group in the Donbas by encircling and defeating this group, which will deprive Ukraine of most of the armed forces and heavy equipment.
Yesterday Putin had a most interesting conversation with members of what look like a flight attendant union. We hope to bring the the whole thing subtitled in English later today, but here is the key sentence made by Putin during that conversation:
Translation: If the leadership of Ukraine continues to do what they are doing, it will call into question the future of Ukrainian statehood, and that will be entirely their responsibility
I think that it is important to understand the context in which Putin made this statement. As a reminder:
- The Ukronazi armed forces are down to less than 25% of its original size.
- Almost all the remaining forces are in some type or another of cauldrons.
- Russia has full air supremacy
- The Ukronazi fleet does not exist anymore
- In spite of all the propaganda, no help from abroad will affect the outcome of this war
- It appears that Russia will surround Odessa and eventually take control of the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast
In other words, what seems to be shaping up is that Russia will soon have control over the entire Ukraine except for the western provinces (west of Vinnitsa and Zhitomir). In other words, the war is over, at least militarily. There will be a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators tomorrow, and it shall be interesting to see if something, anything, will come out of it.
The west is clearly determined to heroically fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian. Russia wants to stop this operation as soon as possible, but only after her double goals of 1) disarmament and 2) denazification are achieved.
Right now the big question is Kiev. It’s a big city with plenty of civilians and probably 30-50 thousand combatants of all different kinds (VSU, SBU, Volkssturm, deathsquads, looters, etc.). The logical solution would be to offer the combatants (and the civilians) corridors to exit the city, but the West can’t have that.
Now if the Ukies won’t vacate Kiev, then some rather serious fighting will take place inside the city and clearing the city from the Nazis will demand the involvement of a major Russian force. It appears that these forces are now in their staging areas all around the city (except for the south).
Think about it this way: the frontline (line of contact) is now very long and the Ukies don’t have enough forces to even try to hold any frontline in such a context.
However, remember the number of Russian forces deployed along the Ukrainian border – about 100,000+ or so soldiers? It appears that there are currently not enough Russia forces to fully exploit the Russian advances over the past ten days. Alternatively, we could say that the Russian force is big enough, but that now it has to sharply increase its use of firepower to further develop its operations.
For all these reasons, here is what I suppose is in the making:
- If the Ukrainian delegation agrees to a surrender, then things can be resolved with the least amount of needless deaths and suffering. However, the West will not allow the Ukrainians to surrender and those Ukrainians who might agree to talk will get shot by their own (it is happening all over Banderastan right now).
- Having received a Ukrainian rejection, I believe that Russia will bring in more forces and will begin by clearing out the Mariupol and Odessa cauldrons (or “soon to be cauldrons”).
- In at least one case (near Voznesensk), a Ukrainian counter-attack did break through the Russian defensive lines. This shows that the Russian lines are thinning out as a consequence of their own successes, and that then allows the Nazi forces to mount successful counter-attacks.
- It is also quite clear that the US/NATO is offering the Ukrainians its full reconnaissance/intelligence support, and that while their own networks and command posts are gone, the US/NATO continue to support Ukie operations.
For all these reasons, and failing some kind of ceasefire, the next 7-10 days ought to see a sharp increase in Russian operations, not only in the air and on the ground but also on the sea where the Black Sea Fleet will be engaged to secure the Ukrainian coast line. The Russian might also have to do something about NATO’s intel/recon support for Ukrainian forces, either overtly or with a modicum of plausible deniability.
Which begs one question: how far west are the Russians willing to go?
I don’t know. But I know that during his talk yesterday, Putin indicated that “only” supporting and defending the LDNR would not be enough because the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass would receive a constant flow of support from the West.
Hence the Russian General Staff decided that it needed to do two things first: 1. destroy the Ukrainian defense infrastructure, and 2. encircle the Ukronazi forces in the Donbass by a envelopment/pincer movement from the south and the north. I still am waiting for confirmation that this operational-level cauldron has been locked, but nobody (that I know of) produced any recent map for today. Still, I think that we can safely assume that cauldron will be locked very soon (or has already been locked).
Still, major (relatively speaking) Ukrainian force concentrations have dug in and are ready for long urban combat operations in at least the following cities: Odessa, Dnepr and Kiev. Could the Russian military evict the Nazis from these cities? Yes, Mariupol is being cleaned up as we speak, but only at a high human cost (on all sides) and by bringing in more firepower (on the ground and in the air).
My guess is that the Russians have decided to clear the entire south front first. Russian forces are already in between Nikolaev and Odessa, and the Black Sea Fleet has reportedly conducted strikes southwest of Odessa. Right now the Black Sea Fleet is keeping the Ukrainians guessing whether there will be an amphibious assault and if yes, where.
I am no prophet, but a securing a bridgehead southwest of Odessa to then land an amphibious assault force and develop it all from there seems like a reasonable idea to me.
Once both Odessa and Nikolaev are either taken or, at least, solidly surrounded, then Russia can free more forces to move north. Likewise, as soon as the operational cauldron in the Donbass is locked, this will also free more forces to then move west. If this is successful, then Russia will have achieved a strategic cauldron encompassing the entire Ukraine west of the Vinnitsa-Zhitomir line.
If this is not successful and Russians lose their tempo, then the only solution left will be to sharply increase the intensity of the entire operation. I think that this is exactly what Putin had in mind when he said “If the leadership of Ukraine continues to do what they are doing, it will call into question the future of Ukrainian statehood, and that will be entirely their responsibility“.
So, to sum it all up:
- Russia would prefer to end this war at the negotiations table
- The West wants to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian
- and the Ukrainians… …actually, I have no idea what they are up to, what they still hope for, what they understand or not, but the best thing they could do would be to rise up against the Nazis, disarm them and declare their cities open. Either that, or emigrate.
This is a totally depressing thought, but I see no other option for Russia but to turn up the “pain dial” on both the Ukrainians and the West and see if they are now willing to stop this war.
If not, then turn it up again, and then repeat as many times as needed until either 1) the West capitulates or 2) the Ukraine is unilaterally disarmed and denazified by Russia.
Here is what is also crucial to understand:
Russia was willing, when forced, to intervene in the Ukraine. If forced, Russia will take on any country, including any NATO member country that will assist the Ukrainians militarily. If forced, Russia will even fight all of NATO and the USA together and, if forced, she will use all her weapons, including nuclear ones. And if that means that the entire planet is nuked then, as Putin said, “we have no need for a planet without Russia”. All this is to say that Russia is not bluffing, Putin will not back down and that there is no price which Russia would not be willing to pay to prevail in this existential war.
Russia will not stop until her existence is made safe again.
What about the West?
I believe that the West has a “smartass policy”: we do fight down to the last Ukie, and we get as many Steppe Niggers and Snow Niggers to kill each other, but then we stop just short of nuclear war with Russia.
Question: do you trust the geniuses in power in the West to successfully walk this tightrope?
I sure don’t.
Reach your own conclusions.
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