Nothing Alarming: Europe Data Show No Upward Trend In Droughts And Forest Fires
P. GOSSELIN of NO TRICKS ZONE
German online NOVO-Argumente looks at the forest fire situation in Germany and Europe.
Currently parts of Europe are experiencing severe drought conditions and forest fires are raging in Germany. Climate activists and the mainstream are claiming it’s climate change, and it’s unprecedented.
But NOVO-Argumente looks at the historical data going back decades and finds nothing alarming.
Over the long-term average (1993 to 2019), 1,035 forest fires in Germany were recorded with an average of 656 hectares affected. The amount of damage is just 1.38 million euros. Forest fires therefore cost us about as much per year as we spend every 30 minutes on subsidizing solar and wind energy.
“No evidence of an increase in forest fires”
As the following graph shows, there is no evidence of an increase in forest fires over the last 30 years in terms of number and extent. The peaks are not seen in this chart from the Federal Environmental Agency because they are in the past. In 1975, over 8,000 hectares burned in Lower Saxony alone. In contrast, in the year 2021, which is not yet recorded in the graph, there were only 548 forest fires in the whole of Germany on a total area of 148 hectares.
Number of forest fires and area damaged.
Drought from climate change
One reason more and more people are getting nervous is that we have recently (2018 and 2019) had very dry years. Is this climate change? Is it getting drier and drier in the summer in Germany due to climate change?
If we look at the summer precipitation over the last 140 years, which is shown on Jörg Kachelmann’s weather channel, we have to answer ‘no’. There is no clear trend:
Summer precipitation mean for Germany, 1881-2019.
And if we pick out the peaks, we see that both four of the driest summers and four of the wettest summers are in the recent past, the last 30 years:
Driest years listed on left table, the wettest years on the right table.
In winter, there is certainly no sign of a trend toward more dryness. In the list, seven wet winters compare to only three dry winters since 1990.
“There is also no increase in fires in Europe, and especially in southern European countries, but an overall downward trend.”
In Europe, too, and especially in the southern European countries, there has been no increase in fires, but an overall downward trend, as the following graph from the European Environment Agency shows:
Of course, the Agency points out that even though there has been a decline in the last 30 years despite global warming, the area could double in the future, given an (unlikely) rise in global temperatures of three degrees. Unless fire management is improved, then the increase could also be ‘substantially’ limited. In other words, even under worst-case scenarios for global warming, forest fires will be a relatively easy problem to manage in the future, even though forest fire risk may increase.
For the near future, in Germany, the energy crisis could play a part in prevention: once a major firewood gathering effort gets underway in the rural population of eastern Germany, the fire load of the forests there, which has grown over the years, could be significantly reduced in the medium term.”
Full article in German at NOVO Argumente.
The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)
Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.
Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.