China and Poland launch regular railway line between Beijing and Warsaw, the “Silk Road” at the gates of Europe

The railway line linking China to Poland was one of the main topics of discussion during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s reception of Polish President Andrzej Duda in Beijing in June. Warsaw welcomed the Belt and Road Initiative, which “represents enormous development opportunities” and has “greatly boosted Poland’s infrastructure construction and economic development.”  

Warsaw’s (and the EU’s) hope to rebalance the scales 

The Polish president then said he was “willing to advance cooperation and deepen exchanges in economy and trade, agriculture, infrastructure and connectivity.” This was the wish of his counterpart and host, who called for making “good use” of bilateral relations to “advance major projects” such as “China-Europe freight trains.”  

Barely two weeks later, Beijing and Warsaw announced the launch of a regular rail link. This project, it is insisted, will strengthen trade between the two countries, especially between China and the European Union (EU). Poland could then become a hub from which products arriving in its territory from Asia would be unloaded and distributed to other European markets.  

Currently, it is “cargoes of household appliances and small equipment” that are transported. Nevertheless, Warsaw wants trade with China, its second supplier in 2023 with more than 47 billion euros, to be more balanced by stimulating Polish exports. These have certainly recorded a constant increase in recent decades but remain insignificant in comparison with its imports from Beijing. 

Poland therefore has every interest in maintaining a positive relationship with its second economic partner, in a context of trade tensions between the 27 and China. At the end of June, the European Commission announced the imposition of customs duties on electric cars manufactured in China and imported into Europe, to “fight” against “excessive” or “unfair” public subsidies from Beijing. 

Europe intends to take advantage of this opportunity to redress the balance, but for the moment, it is China that has everything to gain. Already in January, the volume of goods transported by rail between this country and the European continent, via Germany, recorded a jump of 30% compared to the same month in 2023. At that time, the majority of trains providing this connection remained at the quay. The security risks weighing on the Red Sea due to the Houthi attacks from Yemen have changed the situation: many Western shippers are opting for rail freight.  

A (fragile) boon for Russia 

The duration of the journeys, i.e. around ten days, is favourable to them in comparison with the maritime routes passing through the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa), which can take up to 50 days. This alternative is preferred to air transport, which is more expensive, and is no match for maritime transport. 

The Beijing-Warsaw line mainly opens the door to Europe’s “Silk Road” and Xi Jinping’s initiative. If freight with the Old Continent had declined in 2023, it has indeed taken off with Russia and other Asian countries.  

Moscow is also the other winner with this railway line. The sanctions do prohibit the transport of goods by land to Russia and Belarus. Transit, however, is still allowed. As a result, the Russian national railway company, RZD, pockets the majority of the tolls collected on these routes.  

One issue could, however, “spoil everything”: border tensions between Poland and Belarus, through which the trains of this line pass. Warsaw, which will assume the rotating presidency of the EU in early 2025 and which promises to “play a constructive role in promoting relations between Europe and China”, does not rule out a complete closure of the borders with its neighbor due to a growing migration crisis.  

It is next to these same borders that Minsk is conducting, with the Chinese army, military exercises called “Falcon Assault”, which are to last until July 19, or 11 days in total. The maneuvers are interpreted as a signal to NATO, whose summit in Washington has just been held and of which Warsaw is a member. 

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