Pam Barker | Director of TLB Europe Reloaded Project
What is the Steinmeier Formula? Named after Frank-Walter Steinmeier in 2016 when he was German foreign minister, now German President, it is a plan for stopping the current war in eastern Ukraine between the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk) and Ukrainian troops. It grants special, self-governing status to the Donbas region; however, Russian forces and Russian-backed militants will be required to leave the territory, with Ukraine regaining control over the eastern border with Russia. All this, providing first that upcoming local elections – which will be monitored – are deemed to be fair. Emma Beswick in a recent piece titled What is the ‘Steinmeier Formula’ and will it lead to peace in eastern Ukraine? describes it thus (alert: Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council, cited below, must perforce be anti-Russian):
What exactly is the ‘Steinmeier Formula’?
The conflict in eastern Ukraine has left around 13,000 people dead, a quarter of them civilians, according to the UN, and wounded up to 30,000.
In September 2014 — and again in February 2015 — Ukraine and Russia, along with France and Germany, signed off on the so-called Minsk agreement, a plan to establish peace.
Painting the two key actions the agreement encompasses with a broad brush, they amount to holding local elections and returning pro-Russian separatist regions to Ukraine’s control.
However, there was no clear indication of the order in which steps should be taken.
The “Steinmeier Formula” is a sequencing of the agreement, Peter Dickinson, publisher of Business Ukraine magazine and fellow at the Atlantic Council told Euronews.
What is Russia’s position?
“In it’s most Moscow-friendly interpretation, the formula holds elections would take place (in eastern Ukraine) with the current security environment still in place,” Dickinson said. “Essentially with the separatist/Russian forces still in charge.”
This could legitimise Russian proxies or appointees by seeing them elected, he added.
Moscow would like to see the status quo confirmed in this way, to ensure it has influence in the area to stop Western integration and it could then stage a “theatrical retreat”, Dickinson explained.
…
“Any attempt to legitimise the Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and local representatives appointed by the Russians would be a red line in Ukrainian public opinion,” he said.
But the country is “war-weary” and new President Volodymyr Zelensky has huge momentum, enjoying unprecedented popularity, and wants to deliver peace.
A reminder that Ukraine’s neo-nazis are hardcore people both in their immense hatred of all things Russian and for their willingness to murder innocent Ukrainians, as they ably demonstrated during the Maidan coup, instigated by Obama. Pictures of their atrocities can be found online. No wonder that they are protesting Zelensky’s decision.
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Breaking News: The Ukraine has signed the “Steinmayer formula”! (UPDATED 4x)
THE SAKER
The Russian media is reporting from numerous sources that the representatives of the Ukraine have signed the Steinmayer formula.
President Zelenskii is making a press conference confirming this.
This is, of course, very good news. It appears that the pressure of Trump and Macron has worked.
Now the biggest danger comes from the Ukronazis who are already going hysterical and speaking of a “victory for Putin”.
Zelenskii was put in a terrible position, just read this excellent piece by my friend Dmitry Orlov:
https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2019/09/look-whos-not-laughing.html
Still, I believe that he has made the right choice. Now he will need all the help possible to resist the Ukronazis who will go ballistic and threaten a new Maidan.
You know who else will be despondent? All the Russians opposition figures who accused Putin of “selling out” Novorussia.
Stay tuned, if something interesting happens, I will update here.
The Saker
UPDATE1: in his presser, Zelenskii explained that the Steinmayer will be “re-worked” by a future law which the Ukrainian Rada will pass. So in fact, he says one thing to the Minsk Contact Group and something very different to his domestic audience. To them he said “there will be no surrender” 🙂
Natalia Nikonorova, DNR Foreign Minister speaking to the Russian media from her car
That’s okay, what matters is not what anybody says, but that which was signed, and the foreign minister of the DNR (ER: Donbas) confirmed that the Steinmayer was not changed or otherwise amended.
UPDATE2: the Ukronazis have already started a protest in front of Zelenskii’s residence. Both Poroshenko and Timoshenko (pictured) have declared that they are categorically rejecting the Steinmayer formula.
UPDATE3: the Rada is going ballistic. They just had an emergency session which saw Liashko declare that Zelenskii is a “usurper” while the Speaker of the Rada said that the President had violated the constitution. I kid you not. I think that they might well try to impeach Zelenskii next. Wow, what a nice coincidence, isn’t it? Every time a President does something the PTB don’t like – they simply impeach him!
UPDATE4: check out this video showing the Ukronazis screaming “no to the capitulation!” over and over again:
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Original article
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