The flight of Ukrainian civilians in the roar of Russian bombardments, the soft approach of the French presidential election, now occupy the front pages of newspapers and news channels.

Neither the health situation nor the vaccination pass seem to interest journalists anymore, after 24 months of stifling presence.

And yet, apart from the lifting of the obligation to wear the mask in the restaurant, the daily life of the French has not changed.

The vaccination pass is still active; it is mandatory to take the TGV, visit a relative in hospital or enter a café.

I note a deafening silence from the media around the  deactivation of the health pass.

However, they are the ones who will determine the near future of the vaccination pass.

The third dose campaign is a failure

Two weeks ago, 4 to 5 million people lost their pass overnight[1]; 10 million will join them soon, that is to say all the French people who have not taken their third dose.

Why are the vaccination centers deserted? For three reasons:

  • the French have found that the big bad Omicron variant was in fact nothing serious and that the Covid, in general, is declining despite the gigantic contaminations of recent months;
  • the benefit/risk ratio of vaccination is back at the center of the debates, fueled by the Senate inquiry committee on side effects[2];
  • a growing part of the population has understood that the government’s obsession with vaccination has other long-term objectives (I will come back to this)… and are more suspicious.

The government has no other choice, in this context of general disaffection for vaccination, than to announce the abandonment of the vaccination pass. This should be done by the end of March, following the example of all our neighbors, except Italy.

This announcement will obviously not prevent Olivier Véran (ER: French health minister who, by the way, ‘got Covid’ a while back, around the same time as Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer. Certain readers will know to suspect this is code.) from puffing out his chest and claiming that he has “conquered the danger” thanks to a vigorously imposed vaccination pass.

A few weeks before the presidential election, that counts.

But no. The lifting of the vaccination pass will not be a happy ending but a first step.

Whatever happens, we will witness one of these 3 scenarios:

Scenario n°1: total repeal of the vaccination pass (I don’t believe it)

The most desirable scenario… AND the least probable… would be the total repeal of the vaccination pass (and not its simple suspension).

In constitutional and human terms, that would be the right thing to do.

We would return to a state of law, where everyone’s freedom is no longer determined by their medical data.

However, the State has invested considerable resources in the technology of the vaccination pass. But also in strength of conviction on the theme “the vaccination pass is good for you”.

You don’t throw away a fancy, brand new car after you’ve used it for just a few months. You store it carefully in the garage, waiting for better days.

That’s what will happen, I’m sure.

Scenario n°2: provisional suspension and reactivation next fall

The second scenario is that the pass is temporarily suspended.

The Covid virus has become endemic, scientists tell us. This means that it will continue to circulate in one form or another, and that we will have, each autumn-winter, episodes of contagion comparable to those of the flu.

This predictable seasonality will allow the authorities to reactivate the vaccination pass in the fall – perhaps even as soon as the summer holidays end, as a preventive measure.

This time, just one or two doses will be enough to benefit from the pass throughout the cold season, and thus continue to be able to move around, go to a restaurant, etc.

And so on: each year the anti-Covid vaccination campaign will become seasonal, exactly like that of the flu.

With the difference that…

…the fact of having received your dose… will condition your freedoms!

Scenario n°3: reactivation and increase of the vaccination pass

Scenario #3 is the monstrous girl from the previous one.

It is, in my opinion, the most probable.

The State will consider that the principle of a vaccination pass has now been enacted by the legislative assemblies of our country, but also by civil society.

I wrote it in my petition last December: the vaccination pass is a point of no return towards a new model of society.

I still think so.

I was not fighting this vaccine pass but above all all its avatars to come.

Today, nothing prevents the State from extending the application of the pass to other vaccines.

The most “obvious” is the flu vaccine. Be aware that vaccine projects combining anti-Covid and anti-influenza are under development, in particular at Novavax[3].

There are all the other vaccines, from DTP to mumps to measles and some newcomers like Gardasil, the famous “vaccine” against the papillomavirus.

Depending on your year of birth, the digital integration of your vaccination record, attesting that you are up to date with your injections, seems highly probable.

This “increased vaccination pass” could even, in the long term, be an integral part of the digital identity project officially supported by the European Union.

I remind you that this project includes your “facilitated” access to your bank accounts[4]. That the two projects merge (vaccination pass and digital identity) does not seem to me science fiction. I would not be surprised, in 5 to 10 years, that your assets could be “frozen” if you are not up to date with your injections.

Do you think I’m exaggerating?

Frankly, I wish I was wrong.

But these last two years have made us witness political and social decisions so unheard of, so unimaginable before this crisis, that in comparison the pill of scenarios 2 and 3 would be easier to swallow – especially since it would be spread in the weather.

What makes them possible (and in my opinion probable) is, once again, the “precedent” set, for the first time in our history, by the conditioning of our social life and our freedom, in as a citizen, to a medical act in full view of all.

I would like to meet you next year to talk about it again. In the meantime I am curious about your comments, to post below.

Be well,

Rodolphe Bacquet

[1] Marcellin J (10.02.2022). Vaccination pass: 4 to 5 million people will lose it on February 15, are you concerned? Midi Libre regards-10101644.php

[2] Mollier-Sabet L (09.02.2022). Seized by a petition on the side effects of vaccines, the Senate wants to “respond to the concerns that are expressed”. Public Senate.

[3] CNews (08.09.2021). A vaccine that is both anti-flu and anti-covid in development.

[4] AFPE (03.06.2021). Brussels wants to set up a European digital identity. 24 hours.