ER Editor: INSEE, in the title of the article, is the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. It is the national statistics bureau of France.
INSEE data show that it is impossible to have 30,800 more deaths in France in 2020 because of COVID-19!
Dr. Peter EL BAZE for FranceSoir
According to official INSEE figures for the number of deaths from all causes from January 1 to July 31, 2020 in France, we are told that there were 30,800 more (Covid) deaths – due to COVID – than the previous year.
This is not possible and we are demonstrating it here.
Let’s start by looking at the total number of deaths in France between January 1 and July 31 over the past 3 years: for 2018 it is 363,955, in 2019 362,900, and in 2020 379,200. These are the deaths from all causes for France. By difference, there are + 15,245 more deaths in 2020 than in 2018 and + 16,300 more deaths between 2020 and 2019.
Logically, it is impossible that there will be more than 16,300 more deaths in 2020 (whatever the cause, COVID or NOT COVID).
An adjustment is also necessary
To be more complete, we must remove from this maximum figure of 16,300 deaths in excess of 2018:
- The 2,000 to 3,000 deaths/year that are added each year due to the increase in the population and its aging population.
- The deaths in March-April-May 2020 of other pathologies by deprivation of care due to confinement. And these are in the thousands.
- As a result, the adjusted figure for the number of deaths in France is necessarily much lower than 14,500, a small part of which is due to COVID-19.
A correction based on global indices
Applying the current world average mortality rate of 0.011% to France, we get about 7,000 deaths, which would be consistent with Germany, which has declared 9,000 deaths for 84 million inhabitants.
A little common sense: France, which has one of the best medical systems in the world, cannot have 400% more deaths than the world average!
The majority of the death certificates checked ‘dead COVID-19’ did not die because of COVID-19. There exists:
- A financial incentive to tick the Covid box:
it is 5,000 euros / certificate in hospitals(removed at the request of the author) and 55 euros for family doctors,
- A recommendation not to look for medical evidence (test, autopsy), a simple suspicion being enough,
- A recommendation not to make differential diagnoses with the patient’s other serious pathologies (heart failure, hypertension, cancers, etc.) present in 99% of deceased patients.
The erroneous arguments that will not fail to be evoked:
- ‘Decrease in deaths from road accidents in March-April’: the 200 fewer deaths from road accidents due to lockdown do not change these figures.
- ‘In 2020 there are 14,000 people who should have died and did not die without any reason (24,000 over the year)’. This kind of miracle does not exist in medicine, it has never happened in history except the following year of a war.
- 14,000 sick people did not die because of the lockdown and masks. The reality is that the general lockdown is responsible for thousands more deaths among the millions of chronically ill people due to lack of care – the city doctors’ offices and hospital consultation rooms were empty, even in chemotherapy!
In epidemiology, the two main causes of variations in mortality are wars and epidemics.
Mathematically it is shown that the figure of 30,800 deaths due to Covid-19 is impossible.
That if all the additional deaths in 2020 were all CAUSED by Covid-19, the figure cannot exceed 14,500 and is probably much less.
Dr. Peter EL BAZE, Former Physician Attaché of the Hospitals of the CHU of Nice, former Head of the Internal Medicine Service A1, Les Sources, Nice. Creator of the medical software Megabaze and Oncobaze (chemotherapy).
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