- Presidential elections will take place in April 2022, which isn’t far away, and Le Pen is looking stronger these days. Macron had won last time as the anti-Le Pen candidate, but the virus problem, the Gilets Jaunes and economic problems are bleeding support for him. Macron is looking fragile now.
- So he’s trying to garner support from the right, the more patriotic part of society that he’s alienated with his globalist, integrationist agenda. His recent stance has been more pro-France against terrorism and Islam, and Turkey. He’s also been trying to reach out to Russia, which is popular with right-wing society. But few are believing him. They know his real agenda is to have ‘more Europe’, ‘more integration’, ‘more globalisation’. So is he trying to split the right?
- Marion Marechal, Le Pen’s niece, is much younger and could make her own run for the Presidency. If she does, she will split the right-wing vote. It’s a clever, French-style strategy but it’s failed because Marechal won’t be used by Macron. So she gave Roger-Petit the brush-off. Perhaps it is her who has leaked the story. So it has backfired on Macron with him being looked upon as trying to cut deals behind people’s backs.
- It’s a loss for Macron and a good indicator of how French politics are slipping away from him. He should have real problems getting elected in 2022. Will he pull out before then?
- Why doesn’t he just go full-on left? Because there is a swing to the right in France as there is in many places. Macron has weakened the left because he’s identified it with globalism and integration. Also, Jean-Luc Melenchon is much further to the left but an anti-EU leftist. He’s been eclipsed over the years, so he’s no longer a contender. Winning over the right is the only strategy, by either doing just that or splitting it up.
- Will Le Pen win? It’s not clear. New legal proceedings could be opened against her or a scandal could be invented. All sorts of political games are played in France. It will be difficult to get her over the line even though events are moving her way.
- The French deep state could invent a new person for the election, another centrist candidate, just as Macron was created and appeared out of nowhere when Hollande was in trouble. So the same trick could be done to Macron. France is a complicated country – it has a deep state that is very devious and manipulative, with the power of the media behind it. So Le Pen’s success is not a given.
Macron in trouble after strange adviser lunch with niece of Marine Le Pen
See The Guardian’s Macron under scrutiny after adviser’s lunch with niece of Le Pen.
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