Failed Prediction: Three Major Mistakes in Soros’ 2017 Russia Prognosis

Failed Prediction: Three Major Mistakes in George Soros’ 2017 Russia Prognosis


George Soros’ 2016 gloomy prediction of Russia’s economic collapse and the government’s political bankruptcy in 2017 has not come true, Ivan Danilov, a Russian economist and author of the popular political blog Crimson Alter wrote for RIA Novosti, explaining what lies behind the magnate’s miscalculation.

The prognosis of legendary Hungarian-American business magnate George Soros about the inevitable bankruptcy of Russia in 2017 has not come true, Ivan Danilov writes, outlining Soros’ three mistakes.

Business magnate George Soros arrives to speak at the Open Russia Club in London, Britain June 20, 2016.

© REUTERS/ Luke MacGregor
 “The Putin regime faces bankruptcy in 2017, when a large part of its foreign debt matures, and political turmoil may erupt sooner than that,” the magnate wrote in February 2016 for The Guardian.


However, contrary to Soros’ prediction, Russian bonds enjoy strong demand despite the risk related to sanctions, while the ruble’s exchange rate does not indicate that the country is heading towards an economic collapse, Danilov noted.

“To be fair, it should be noted that the American financier did not predict the exact date of Russia’s bankruptcy, referring only to the year — 2017. So, he has 24 more days to fulfill the prediction,” the economist noted emphasizing three major flaws in Soros’ prognosis.

First, in his article entitled “Putin is a bigger threat to Europe’s existence than ISIS” the American magnate claimed that Moscow was seeking to “foster the EU’s disintegration, and the best way to do so is to flood Europe with Syrian refugees. “What gives the magnate’s statement special piquancy is that it was Soros-affiliated organizations that were engaged in illegal importations of Middle Eastern migrants to EU countries, Danilov pointed out.

“Someone can be amazed at the impudence with which one of the authors of the ‘refugee crisis’ tries to shift the responsibility to Moscow and make Europeans believe that Middle Eastern migrants and terrorists flooding European cities are part of the plan of the Russian president wishing to bring down the European Union before Russia collapsed,” the economist noted.

Soros failed to foresee that Russia will not get bogged down in Syria but will hit its objectives of destroying terrorist targets in a record time, Danilov emphasized. As a result, Moscow has managed to convince the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cooperate with Russia regardless of Washington’s displeasure.

According to the economist, the major reason for the current rise in oil prices is Russia’s effective use of force against terrorists in Syria.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's talks with King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s talks with King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia

The second mistake of Soros is that he underestimated the Russian economy and the authorities,” Danilov highlighted.

The American billionaire presumed that the Russian government will make several gross mistakes in the country’s monetary and budgetary policy; he believed that Russia could be isolated from the global market. However, facts proved otherwise.

Since the publication of Soros’ forecast, Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves have grown, as well as the demand for Russian bonds, Danilov wrote. He stressed that the Russian market is far from being isolated; quite the contrary, foreign investors and industrial corporations regard it as an attractive one. The economist referred to the construction of a new Mercedes plant which has been started earlier this year in Yesipovo industrial park located in the Moscow region. At the same time German carmaker Volkswagen has reportedly signaled willingness to buy a stake in GAZ, a Russian manufacturer of light commercial vehicles.

All of the above shows that European businesses believe in the prospects for the Russian economy and expect its growth, rather than collapse, Danilov summed up.

The third mistake of Soros is the most important, and it… reflects the very essence of the collective West’s misunderstanding of the mysterious Russian soul,” the economist remarked.

The American tycoon insisted that President Putin’s “popularity, which remains high, rests on a social compact requiring the government to deliver financial stability and a slowly but steadily rising standard of living.” Soros surmised that “Western sanctions, coupled with the sharp decline in the price of oil, will force the regime to fail on both counts.”According to Danilov, Soros disregarded the fact that, besides its economic obligations, the Russian leadership is protecting the country’s national interests, sovereignty and national dignity, which remains the most important part of the “social compact” mentioned by the magnate.

The economist noted that Soros’ overconfidence was behind the billionaire’s miscalculation. Danilov quoted the American tycoon who, having earned his first $1 billion in 1993, told reporters: “It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.”

Commenting on the billionaire’s statement Danilov suggested that the events of recent years clearly indicated that “the essence of the ‘Russian Special Way’ is to break the pride of those who imagine themselves to be gods.”


Original article

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