Russia Issues Warrant to Arrest Ukraine’s Zelensky

The most interesting development surrounds the Kremlin having designated Zelensky himself—as well as several other top Ukrainian officials and generals—as “wanted”, though oddly enough, the precise legal reason is unclear and not listed on the Russian Interior Ministry’s site.

The most immediate repercussions of this are:

• Russia may be sending a signal and setting the groundwork for the revocation of any “peace deals” with Zelensky, as placing him on the wanted list ensures that the Russian state cannot legally parley with a wanted criminal.
• Even more darkly, it potentially sets the stage for Russia to eliminate him following his total loss of legitimacy on May 21st, when the Ukrainian presidential inauguration would have taken place.

As to the first point, there have been a lot of signals from both the West and Ukraine itself about coming back to another ‘negotiations’ within the Istanbul mode, particularly given the upcoming global ‘Peace Summit’ in Switzerland on June 15th. Russia may be sending the West a message that no matter what they come up with during this summit, it will be impossible to treat with a man considered not only illegitimate but even a wanted criminal at the state level. Recall just last month Peskov himself hinted as much, and Lukashenko was the one to bring up the illegitimacy roadblock.

Here’s what Medvedev had to say about it on his TG:

What is the benefit for Russia from the Swiss “peace conference”?

The benefit is triple.

Firstly, it will be another evidence of the collapse of the so-called peace plan of the idiot Zelensky. At the same time, it would be desirable for Bandera’s bastard to visit her in person and once again sign off on his intellectual worthlessness.

Secondly, it will become visible evidence of the complete impotence of the current Western elites, who have committed a painful self-castration of their capabilities to end the military conflict. Moreover, on the direct orders of a group of senile doctors from Washington.

Thirdly, it will allow our Armed Forces to continue clearing the Little Russian territory of neo-Nazis without interference or regard for anyone’s asshole “peace initiatives”, and for all of us to carry out scrupulous work towards the final collapse of the political regime b. Ukraine and the speedy return of our ancestral territories to the Russian Federation.

Thank you, country of cheese and watches!

Now there have been increased signals from the West and Ukrainian officials themselves that returning to ‘pre-2022’ borders, much less 1991 borders, is no longer even an objective, but rather, at best, Ukraine aims to merely hold what it currently has.

For instance Congressman Adam Smith stated the best Ukraine can hope for is to retain access to the Black Sea and not lose Kiev:

Smith – the top Dem on House Armed Services –said Ukraine must hold onto about 82 % of the country – and not lose access to the Black Sea or have Kyiv threatened – to consider the endgame a success. Biden admin has been reluctant to say that because no one wants concede that might have to give up ground, he added.

And then there’s this:

Deputy head of UA’s military intelligence Skibitsky states quite plainly that:

His claim, though, hinges on the belief that Russia’s arms production will “plateau” in early 2026 due to a “lack of engineers and materials”, and apparently this will cause Russia to preemptively seek peace. I wouldn’t count on that. He further adds:

Maj Gen Skibitsky warned that Russia’s army is no longer the disorganised rabble that Ukraine repelled from some regions with such success in the early stages of the war.

Now, it is a “single body, with a clear plan, and under a single command,” he said.

Given these potential peace overtures, Russia may be kiboshing Zelensky in order to set the legal precedent that it will not entertain negotiations.

This will accelerate after Zelensky’s mandate truly runs out at the end of May, at which point Russia may take a far sturdier official stance in not even acknowledging him as the country’s leader; in the worst case scenario, this could potentially even lead to Russia eliminating him in strikes, if necessary, though I think they’ll save that trump card for a rainy day.

The more interesting conclusion general Skibitsky makes in his new Economist interview regards the brewing Kharkov region offensive:

Looking at a wider horizon, the intelligence chief suggests Russia is gearing up for an assault around the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the north-east. The timing of this depends on the sturdiness of Ukrainian defences in the Donbas, he says. But he assumes Russia’s main push will begin at the “end of May or beginning of June”. Russia has a total of 514,000 land troops committed to the Ukrainian operation, he says, higher than the 470,000 estimate given last month by General Christopher Cavoli, nato’s top commander. The Ukrainian spymaster says Russia’s northern grouping, based across the border from Kharkiv, is currently 35,000-strong but is set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops. Russia is also “generating a division of reserves” (ie, between 15,000 and 20,000 men) in central Russia, which they can add to the main effort.

This is “not enough” for an operation to take a major city, he says—a judgment shared by Western military officials, but could be enough for a smaller task. “A quick operation to come in and come out: maybe. But an operation to take Kharkiv, or even Sumy city, is of a different order. The Russians know this. And we know this.” In any event, dark days lie ahead for Kharkiv, a city of 1.2m people that rebuffed Russia’s initial assaults in 2022.

As I’ve been writing for a while now, he acknowledges that Russia may be looking to create another fixing operation in the north and then play things by ear depending on where the AFU commits its rundown reserves and forces. Should they overcommit to the potential Kharkov breach, then Russia could slam an offensive through the center front around Donetsk to create breakthroughs.

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