Norway heads to the polls in highly polarised ‘Maga-fication’ election

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ER Editor: Norwegian elections are happening today. Here is some interesting commentary going into the day.

Former NATO head Jens Stoltenberg curiously stepped back from NATO to run in Norwegian politics again. A rinse-and-repeat of people like EU climate czar Franz Timmermans, who went back into Dutch politics. All highly improbable. We wonder if Stoltenberg is a 2.0 by now. Cabal operatives will have been removed. Stoltenberg features as a popular figure in today’s Norwegian elections. A reminder from two and half years ago that Stoltenberg said the quiet part out loud about Ukraine, going squarely against the deep state narrative. Hence we believe it is no longer him but a brand. However, we have to admit that it isn’t readily apparent from online pictures —

NATO Chief Admits: “War Didn’t Start In February Last Year, The War Started In 2014”

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This election commentary and breakdown from epimetheus shows that despite a hardening of the right-wing vote to a more populist flavour, the incumbent AP/Labour party of Stoltenberg is still expected to win. The populist-right is represented by the Progress Party (FrP). The standard Conservative party is Hoyre (H).

Lunchtime polling —

Norway, Verian poll:

National parliament election today

Støre (Ap-S&D): 50%
Solberg (H-EPP): 24%
Listhaug (FrP~ECR): 20%

Fieldwork: 3-5 September 2025
Sample size: 1,452
➤ https://t.co/Df7Nsbqbrl pic.twitter.com/mKKxgyQ5eO

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 8, 2025

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Norway goes to the polls on Monday after an unusually close-fought and polarised election dominated by the cost of living, wealth taxes, oil fund investment in Israel and relations with Donald Trump.

There has been a surge in support for the populist rightwing Progress party led by Sylvi Listhaug, in what has been described by some as “the Maga-fication” of Norwegian politics. In the event of a rightwing victory, Listhaug could become prime minister.

But according to polls, the most probable result is a narrow win for the centre-left, meaning a likely continuation of the minority Labour government led by Jonas Gahr Støre, who has been prime minister since 2021, with the former NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, one of Norway’s most popular politicians, as finance minister.

If, however, Labour does win, they could face drawn out negotiations with smaller leftwing parties, particularly over oil fund investment in Israel, which has led to Stoltenberg coming under heavy scrutiny in recent weeks.

Shazia Majid, a journalist and commentator for the Norwegian newspaper VG, said this election has been “unexpectedly suspenseful” and significantly more polarised than usual.

“It’s truly been a whirlwind of an election with loads of unexpected twists and turns. Norwegians are waiting for the results with bated breath,” she said, in a “milestone election”.

The class and gender divide – which has led to many young men voting for the right – has been a “mobilising factor on both ends of the political spectrum”, she said, with accusations of lies and disinformation from party leaders.

“For leftwing parties the Gaza war has been an important theme, especially towards immigrant background Norwegians and young voters.”

The Conservative party, however, appears to have lost considerable support to the Progressive party and the Green party has unexpectedly gained more support.

Johannes Bergh, the research director and principal investigator at the Norwegian national election studies programme at the Institute for Social Research, said the top election issues have included grocery and energy prices, wealth taxes, healthcare and, unusually for Norwegian elections, which tend to be domestically focused, trade policy with the US.

A year ago, he said, it looked as if Labour would lose this election. But factors including the appointment of Stoltenberg and the perceived success of the prime minister’s meeting at the White House with Trump over trade, have turned their fortunes around.

“There is very much a feeling that they have done a good job [on US relations],” said Bergh.

But there has also been a rise of support for the right, he said. “There seems to be two duelling trends in Norwegian politics. One is a rightwing wave, especially around the young, and support for the sitting government.”

Turnout in Norwegian elections is relatively high – usually between 75% and 80% – and this election has had record early voting.

Peter Egge Langsæther, an assistant political science professor at the University of Oslo, said Stoltenberg’s return to Norwegian politics last winter has proved critical for Labour.

CONTINUE READING HERE

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