ER Editor: Breaking news about the breaching of the Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine, which seems to play a role in cooling down vital parts at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant upstream. (see the map below)
Downstream is the Kherson region, part of which is a flood plain: residents of Kherson voted to join Russia in late 2022. Russian forces retreated from there months ago precisely because of the threat of flooding and being trapped. Residents are currently being evacuated from there.
Moderate voices like Simplicius below say it’s too early to know who collapsed the dam although he provides third party analysis which indicates that it is Russia who is more the loser in this, plus further analysis indicating that weaponry such as mines had been delivered into the dam area once the dam was initially breached, an option already publicly considered by Ukraine months ago:
I could be wrong but judging by those new videos it seems a possibility that Ukraine finally enacted the plan and sent mines down river to blow the dam and some of them are still exploding. We’ll have to wait for more footage to be sure, but it’s a possibility to me.
Suffice it to say that Russia never usually acts rashly or crazily. And Ukraine’s long-promised counteroffensive just hasn’t gotten going, perhaps because Ukraine has lost so many men, equipment and munitions. This RT report from yesterday addresses this: Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt failed – Russian MOD. So does the losing side pull off something like this? Is there even a 3rd option?
A map showing the relevant places:
Some tweets —
High-resolution satellite imagery of the Nova Khakovka dam, collected by @Maxar on 5 June 2023 at 12:15 p.m. local time, reveals that a section of the roadway and sluice gates have been recently damaged/destroyed. First image is from 28 May, to show the difference. pic.twitter.com/CLkUG9YPHV
— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) June 6, 2023
Interesting speculation (see Dhyan Joe’s comment) —
The same people that blew up Nord Stream gas pipelines, and blew up the Tabqa Dam in Syria, blew up Novaya Khakovka Dam.
They denied blowing up the Nord Stream; they denied blowing up the Tabqa Dam. They will deny blowing up Novaya Khakovka Dam too.
— Dhyan ⚡️Joe had the means, motive, and opportunity (@DPrabhata) June 6, 2023
🌊 Satellite images of Nova Khakovka Dam taken on May 28 and June 5.
Shows damage to a section of road and possibly sluice gate(s) has taken place between those dates.
📸 Maxar Technologies
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) June 6, 2023
Further footage shows the level of destruction at Nova Khakovka Dam in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky has called an emergency meeting of the Ukrainian national security council. pic.twitter.com/WadH60pczS
— State of Our Society (@stateofsociety0) June 6, 2023
BREAKING: Hell Breaks Loose as Kakhovka Dam Completely Destroyed
Major news broke that the Nova Khakovka dam has been completely destroyed.
This is the central, extremely important dam that was critical to the whole Kherson situation last year. It was the sole reason Russia retreated, as the threat of destroying the dam kept their troops on the right/western bank of the Dnieper river highly vulnerable.
Footage has just released confirming the catastrophic destruction:
This photo is a geolocated confirmation:
Here were some of the previously forecasted consequences of such a break happening. Projected flooding of the river plains in Kherson region:
Now population centers are already being reported as flooding and mass evacuation orders being given.
An article written last year that spoke of the catastrophic consequences that could ensue if the dam were to be destroyed:
No one knows who destroyed it: Ukrainian analysts are saying Russia did it while Russians say it was the Ukrainians. However, the destruction did appear to come not long after a new wave of Russian cruise missile attacks launched by 6 Tu-95 bombers. Could Russia have destroyed the dam just as Ukraine began to kick off its large offensive, particularly since, as I wrote earlier, there were reports that Ukraine was trying to actualize a river crossing there?
It’s undecided who benefits and to whom it’s a detriment, as some believe that all Russian defenses on the eastern bank will be wiped away by the flood. However, the expanded river boundaries and elevated water levels would preclude Ukrainian crossing attempts, so it clearly seems to favor Russia there. We’ll have to wait and see how it develops as this is just breaking now, no pun intended.
One pro-Ukrainian’s sensible take on the situation, which may very well be accurate:
Ultimately, it’s probably impossible to fully model exactly what the damage will be, so we’ll have to simply wait and see how it unfolds before we can make much of an analysis, as right now everyone is just shooting from the hip and none of us are dam and flooding experts.
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