“The Great Divide”: an X-ray of a country that no longer believes in its leaders

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ER Editor: This article also comes with a visual, graphic breakdown of all the statistics given, in French of course.

All this is great news in fact, and not before time.

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“The Great Divide”: an X-ray of a country that no longer believes in its leaders

FRANCE SOIR & BONSENS.ORG

The latest MIS Group political barometer, conducted for France-Soir and BonSens.org, reveals a deep rift between the French people and their political class, which could be called “The Great Divide.” This analysis paints a picture of a nation desperately seeking an alternative outside the current framework.

The survey was conducted online on February 5, 2025, on a representative sample of 1,200 people. Using the quota method (gender, age, region, socio-professional category, education level), the study has a margin of error of ± 2.8 points for a result of 50%.

The conclusion of chaos: a country on the wrong track.

The French are unequivocal: 66% believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. More worrying for the future, the same proportion (66%) agree that no current political figure embodies a positive future for France.

Trust has been broken

The executive branch is perceived as acting against the public interest. 73% of those surveyed say they have no confidence in the French government, and an overwhelming majority of 78% believe that it does not act in the interests of the population.

The harsh judgment against Emmanuel Macron: the head of state has fallen completely out of favor, with 73% considering him a “bad president.” The sentiment goes beyond simple political disagreement, with 65% of French people saying they are “ashamed” of him. Significantly, 58% of citizens believe that only a team that has never been part of the current political landscape could win their trust.

The demand for resignation and punishment

The call for change is reflected in stark figures: 58% of French people want Emmanuel Macron to resign (including 41% who want him to do so “as soon as possible”). In addition, 60% believe that members of parliament should vote on a motion of no confidence. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is not enjoying any honeymoon period, with 59% expressing mistrust in him.

A trial for incompetence: the executive branch is deemed incapable of managing finances and implementing reforms: 84% criticize the government’s inability to reduce government spending, and 83% consider it incapable of carrying out the necessary reforms.

The favorites: one name stands out from the crowd. Jordan Bardella (ER: Marine Le Pen’s second) is the only figure to exceed 40% favorable opinions (41%), even though he has more unfavorable opinions at 46%. He is ahead of Marine Le Pen (39%) and Édouard Philippe (28%), the latter being the only representative of the “central bloc” to maintain a notable score. Marine Le Pen and Edouard Philippe both have more than 50% unfavorable opinions.

Rejection: figures from the past and from protests. The unpopularity rankings are dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon (76% unfavorable opinion), followed by Éric Zemmour (70%) and François Hollande (66%).

The state of the opposition forces: on the left, François Ruffin and Raphaël Glucksmann are stuck at 17% support. On the right, Bruno Retailleau leads with 25%. Among the sovereigntists, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan remains the most recognizable figure (16% approval rating), while François Asselineau suffers from a lack of name recognition (51% of respondents are unfamiliar with him).

The driving forces behind the vote: Sovereignty and Ukraine

The desire for national protection is the majority view: 62% of voters would support a force pursuing national interests, compared with only 11% for EU interests. Regarding Ukraine, 39% want to reduce France’s support.

Voting intentions: the collapse of the presidential party

If a presidential election were held tomorrow, the National Rally (ER: Marine Le Pen’s party) would come out well ahead with 31%. The real shock comes from the second political force: the “None of these parties/None of these people” bloc, which accounts for 27%. The presidential party, Renaissance, has collapsed to 5%.

The European divide: The French overwhelmingly reject federalism: 65% favor a “Europe of Nations.” Finally, 69% of respondents hold Emmanuel Macron responsible for France’s economic difficulties, compared to 14% for Ursula von der Leyen.

Contextual strategic analysis

The collapse of the “Central Bloc”: The data shows an almost total disappearance of the presidential majority’s electoral base (5%). Emmanuel Macron is no longer just criticized, he has become an emotional foil (65% feel ashamed). Strategically, this means that any candidate claiming to be his heir starts with an insurmountable handicap.

The political vacuum and the temptation of the “outsider”: The 27% score for “None of these parties,” coupled with the desire of 58% of French people to see a completely new team emerge, indicates that the RN does not yet saturate the entire space of protest. There is a gaping political space for a civilian figure or a completely new force, uncorrupted by past battles.

Sovereignty as the new mainstream: With 62% of French people voting primarily for national interests and 65% for a Europe of Nations, France’s political center of gravity has shifted. The issues of sovereignty and national protection are no longer marginal, but form the basis of the majority’s expectations.

A crisis of institutional legitimacy: The demand for impeachment (60%) and resignation (58%) shows that the crisis is no longer just political but institutional.

The country seems to be entering a phase of “cold sedition” in which the authority of the state is no longer recognized by two-thirds of the population.

Source

Featured image source: https://www.craiyon.com/en/image/JJrDejFTScan_WGHiWFZUA

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