Donald Trump just did Europe a favor

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“I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want,” Trump claimed to have told a European leader about how he would respond if their country were attacked by Russia. “You gotta pay!”

Never mind that Trump was talking about what he would do if other NATO countries didn’t live up to the alliance’s spending target of 2 percent of economic output. By casting doubt over America’s commitment to NATO in such a direct and fundamental way, he effectively drove a stake through the alliance’s heart.

It almost doesn’t even matter if he wins reelection at this stage: Europe is on its own.

The only real question the election will resolve for Europe’s security is the timing of NATO’s collapse.

Of course, the Biden administration would dispute that, arguing that if their man wins reelection, NATO would be as safe as ever.

But for how long?

Much of the debate on Trump’s comments so far has focused on the consensus among most right-thinking people that it would run counter to American interests. But for Europe at this stage, that’s almost irrelevant. Europe would be crazy to leave its security every four years up to the whims of about 50,000 American swing-state voters (the rough margin of victory in recent presidential elections).

The reality is that whoever wins in November, MAGA will remain a factor in American politics for some time to come. Whose to say Trump’s Republican heir doesn’t renew his anti-NATO bent? It’ s a risk Europe can’t afford to ignore.

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The truth is, Europe only has itself to blame for the morass. Trump has been harping on about NATO’s laggards for years, but he hardly invented the genre. American presidents going back to Dwight D. Eisenhower have complained about European allies freeloading on American defense.

What Europeans don’t like to hear is that Trump has a point: They have been freeloading. What’s more, it was always unrealistic to expect the U.S. to pick pick up the tab for European security ad infinitum.

After Trump lost to Biden in 2020, its seemed like everything had gone back to normal, however. Biden, a lifelong transatlanticist, sought to repair the damage Trump did to NATO by letting the Europeans slide back into their comfort zone.

Even though overall defense spending has increased in recent years in Europe — as it should have, considering Russia’s war on Ukraine — it’s still nowhere near enough. Only 11 of NATO’s 31 members are expected to meet the spending target in 2023, for example, according to NATO’s own data. Germany, the main target of Trump’s ire, has yet to achieve the 2 percent mark. It’s likely to this year, however, if only because its economy is contracting. (ER: How can Germany meet its 2% obligation if its economy is getting worse?)

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Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the focus of Germany’s national debate has shifted away from the war to heat pumps and mass migration. Even as the country increased its support for Ukraine, the public’s mind drifted elsewhere. Over the past year, Russia has slipped from first place to seventh in the Germans’ perception of threats to the country, according to a study published this week.

Trump’s thunderbolt should help refocus Europe’s strategic compass.

French President Emmanuel Macron talks a good game about pursuing European “strategic autonomy,” but his country hasn’t actually done anything to make that a reality.

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Even if Europe does wake up to the realities it faces, it may well be too late. On paper, Europe, with collective military spending about triple Russia’s and an economy many times its size, should be able to fend for itself. The problem is that Europe is running out of time.

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“Europe can’t stay united without the United States,” Biden said in a speech to the Senate in 1995 during the crisis in Bosnia. “There is no moral center in Europe.”

Europe now has a chance to prove him wrong.

If they succeed, they’ll have only one person to thank.

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