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ER Editor: We offer this extract from Politico today as a way to understand what on earth is going on with this evident piece of political theatre taking place in France. A reminder that a NEW PM, Macron ally Sebastien Lecornu, was brought on, only to take three weeks to appoint a new govt that was merely a copy-paste version of the old. So Lecornu quits immediately, and Bruno LeMaire, an erstwhile finance minister who had quit and returned bizarrely into the Ministry of the Armed Forces porfolio, has since resigned, too.
Political Turmoil: France’s Le Maire Resigns Hours After Prime Minister Steps Down
We are exceptionally lousy at reading the tea leaves, but what is the bigger OPTICAL play here, because there surely is one. The French realizing their governmental, ‘elite’ class are worse than useless has certainly been accomplished. But is there an even bigger point to this? Here we’re interested in the general thrust of the following Politico piece.
A reminder that we’ve been seeing doubles – stand-ins, actors, CGI, who knows? – for a lot of the French establishment people for some time – Macron, Hidalgo, BHL, Philippe, Melenchon, Buzyn, &etc. There may be a Sebastien Lecornu who just stepped down in reality but we’re not betting on it. Lemaire, ditto.
Take some of the nonsense statements in the Politico piece with a large grain of salt.
Notice the ‘too big to fail’ statement in the Politico piece. Is France to be the Eurozone’s Lehman Brothers’ equivalent? Here is what Wikipedia has to say about the too big to fail notion —
“Too big to fail” (TBTF) is a theory in banking and finance that asserts that certain corporations, particularly financial institutions, are so large and so interconnected with an economy that their failure would be disastrous to the greater economic system, and therefore should be supported by government when they face potential failure.[1]
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Why Macron’s meltdown weakens Europe
Investors and governments have no idea what President Emmanuel Macron will do to tackle France’s budget deficit and political crisis. That uncertainty is freaking them out.
TIM ROSS & GEORGIO LEALI for POLITICO.EU
PARIS — Europe was already facing a toxic cocktail of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, Donald Trump’s assault on global trade and the rise of far-right populists across the region. (ER: …)
Then the French government collapsed yet again — this time having lasted less than a day in office — spooking markets with the prospect of a fresh election that could bring the far right closer to power than ever.
In Brussels and other European capitals, officials and diplomats voiced their private fears that President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership on international issues such as Ukraine and Gaza will be fatally weakened. Some worried that the entire eurozone economy may soon be in peril as a result.
Bad trading
On Monday, traders in markets in France and beyond reacted with alarm to the dramatic unraveling of Sébastien Lecornu’s 14-hour-old administration. French stocks and government bonds fell, and the euro itself weakened against the dollar. France’s benchmark CAC 40 index dropped 1.4 per cent.
“There are already many concerns around the eurozone economy,” said one government official from a eurozone country. “We really don’t need this.”
Internally, French officials sought to play down the risks. One said that despite the “complexity” there is still “a pilot in the cockpit” at the economy ministry and that the markets shouldn’t overreact. Not everyone is convinced.
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