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ER Editor: Alas, this article is behind a paywall at The Telegraph —
‘Boriswave’ migrants face 10-year ban on claiming benefits
Shabana Mahmood plans rule change amid fears the immigrants could add hundreds of millions of pounds to welfare bill
‘BorisWave’ refers to the increase in migration coming into the country following Brexit in 2016, when Boris Johnson was prime minister. The irony of this, as explained in this 2024 article ‘Explaining the BorisWave’, was that Brexit was sold to the public in part as a way to ‘take back control’ on immigration, only picking the best and the brightest, i.e. those who shouldn’t need government handouts. Since then, migration has only increased, doing damage in a variety of ways to the country.
The Starmer govt. are concerned that these lower-paid migrants, up to 800,000 admitted into the UK during this ‘BorisWave’ period, means they and their families will likely be eligible for welfare. Hence, they will have to wait up to 10 years to be eligible for Indefinite Leave to Remain status under the new plan. Centre for Migration Control below puts this number at closer to 900,000.
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Nearly 900,000 recent migrants are earning less than the British median wage
A majority of recent payrolled migrants are earning less than the median monthly salary of British payrolled employees
New research from the Centre for Migration Control shows the huge fiscal problems that face Britain if Indefinite Leave to Remain is not overhauled to prevent the ‘Boriswave’ obtaining settled status.
The data, extracted by HMRC from its PAYE Real Time Information and Migration Worker Scan dataset, provides the earnings of 1.6m recent migrants across these 66 nationalities, broken down by paybands.
As of December 2024, there were nearly 879,000 payrolled foreign nationals who registered for a National Insurance number (NINO) between 2021 and 2024 (the period of the ‘BorisWave’) and are earning less than the median British employee.
There have been outlandish claims made by open-border advocates, who have claimed that recent migrants from countries such as Nigeria and India are earning more than the average Brit. This data, provided directly by HMRC, shows that these individuals are lying.
The total numbers:
HMRC provided the Centre for Migration Control with data of 66 nationalities that had more than 2,000 payrolled employees who had registered for a NINO between 2021 and 2024.
In December 2024, the median monthly employee pay for British nationals on a payroll was £2,470.
As of December 2024, there were 879,200 recently payrolled foreign individuals who had a median monthly pay that was less than £2,470. (Note, a proportion of this number are likely to be students, who are restricted to 20 hours of work during term time).
An overwhelming majority of these payrolled individuals came from just five countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Ukraine, and Bangladesh.
It is worth noting that almost all Ukrainians who registered during this period did so under the humanitarian schemes established following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It is expected that a vast majority of these will return home once the war reaches a conclusion. This will not be the case with Indians, Pakistanis, Nigerians, and Bangladeshis, where a significant proportion will remain in order to obtain settled status.
Of the 66 nationalities in the data provided by HMRC, 35 of these had a majority of payrolled employees earning less than the British median salary. These nationalities accounted for a total of 1,257,800 (78.4%) of the payrolled individuals provided by this data .
There were 30 nationalities that had a majority of 2021 – 2024 NINO payrolled employees earning more than the British median. These nationalities accounted for just 21% of the data provided by HMRC.
Median monthly salary by nationality
Recently payrolled individuals from 39 nationalities had median pay that was below the British median. This includes nationalities that made up a large part of the ‘BorisWave’, including India (£2,283), Nigeria (£2,460), China (£2,246), Pakistan (£1,906), and Bangladesh (£1,876).
These 39 nationalities accounted for 1,247,200 recently payrolled individuals, which is 77.8% of the available data.
The 20 nationalities with the highest median wage for payrolled employees were:
However, between them, these nationalities accounted for just 175,400 (13.3%) of foreign payrolled employees who had recently registered for a NINO.
Source
Featured image source, illegal migrants: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/36685541/boris-johnson-decision-migrant-bill-skyrocket-matt-goodwin/
Featured image source, BorisWave: https://thecritic.co.uk/the-boriswave-hasnt-even-hit-the-shore/
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